On October 23, according to the Central Meteorological Administration, Typhoon Tanmei, the 20th typhoon of the year, formed in the waters east of the Philippines on the early morning of October 22. As of 2 PM today, the typhoon’s center was located approximately 330 kilometers northeast of Manila, Philippines, with maximum wind speeds of 9 (23 m/s) and a minimum central pressure of 990 hPa. The radius of the 7-level wind circle spans 160 to 270 kilometers. Forecasts indicate that Typhoon Tanmei is expected to move across the northern part of Luzon Island in the Philippines between the night of October 23 and the daytime of October 24, eventually entering the South China Sea by the evening of October 24. From October 23 to 28, strong winds will persist in the southern sea areas due to the combined effects of Typhoon Tanmei and cold air.
When questioned about the typhoon’s projected path and intensity, meteorological experts suggest that Tanmei will move northwest at approximately 20 km/h, gradually strengthening as it approaches the northeastern coast of Luzon. It is anticipated to pass over northern Luzon during the night of October 23 to the daytime of October 24 before transitioning into the eastern waters of the South China Sea. Once in the South China Sea, Tanmei is expected to intensify, possibly reaching typhoon or strong typhoon levels (38-42 m/s, 13-14 levels), and continue toward the southern waters of Hainan Island. Around October 27, Tanmei may encounter another surge of cold air, leading to a gradual weakening and a southward shift or rotation of its center.
In terms of wind forecasts, from October 23 to 28, areas such as the Bashi Channel, the waters east of Taiwan, the Taiwan Strait, most of the East China Sea, the majority of the South China Sea, the Gulf of Tonkin, as well as the coastal waters of Zhejiang, Fujian, Guangdong, Hainan, Guangxi, and the eastern coast of Taiwan are likely to experience winds of levels 6 to 8, with gusts reaching 9 to 10. Specifically, the coastal regions of Fujian, the western coast of Taiwan, the southern coast of Hainan, and nearby waters of the Xisha and Zhongsha Islands, as well as areas in and around Yongxing Island, Huangyan Island, the Taiwan Strait, Bashi Channel, and parts of the northern and central South China Sea could see wind levels of 9 to 10, with gusts of 11 to 12. The waters around the typhoon’s center could experience winds between levels 11 and 14, with gusts in the range of 15 to 16.
Regarding rainfall, between October 24 and 27, significant to heavy rainfall is expected in regions such as southern Jiangsu, Shanghai, eastern Zhejiang, Taiwan Island, southwestern Guangdong, southeastern Guangxi, Hainan Island, and Sansha. Some areas, particularly in southeastern Zhejiang, eastern Taiwan, Hainan Island, and near Yongxing Island in Sansha, might face torrential rain, with localized extreme rainfall amounts. Cumulative precipitation is anticipated to be between 20 to 60 mm, while regions in southeastern Zhejiang, eastern Taiwan, and Hainan Island could receive 100 to 300 mm, with some parts in eastern Taiwan and Sansha reaching 400 to 600 mm, and areas around Yongxing Island possibly exceeding 600 mm. The primary rainfall period for Taiwan Island is expected to be from October 24 to 25, while for coastal areas in East China and South China, it will primarily occur from October 25 to 26.
Meteorological experts advise that the combined influence of Typhoon Tanmei and cold air will prolong strong winds in the southern seas. They recommend that vessels navigating in the southeastern East China Sea, the Taiwan Strait, the majority of the South China Sea, the Bashi Channel, and waters east of Taiwan return to port or avoid affected areas promptly. Workers engaged in maritime operations in the central and northern South China Sea should evacuate in advance. The public and tourists in regions such as Yongxing Island in Sansha, eastern Taiwan, and Hainan Island should remain vigilant regarding flood risks and closely monitor forecasts and warnings. They are advised to stay away from mountainous, island, and coastal areas that may pose dangers and to take necessary precautions to secure facilities against strong winds.