Nearly 80 years after Jackie Robinson shattered the color barrier, recent analysis reveals that Black and Latino players continue to face significant hurdles in their pursuit of Major League Baseball. Jackie Robinson’s groundbreaking achievement in 1947 marked a pivotal moment for civil rights, but today, Black representation in MLB is at its lowest since the 1950s. While MLB initiatives have led to an increase in Black players being selected in early draft rounds since 2010, they have not advanced sufficiently through the minors to reverse the declining trend of Black players in the majors.
An exclusive analysis of minor league data highlights a key factor inhibiting Black players from reaching the majors: a long-standing bias against Black and Latino players dating back to 1950, which has limited their opportunities at certain positions and hindered their progress through the minors. Players of color, particularly those with darker skin, have often been funneled into outfield positions and experienced pronounced bias. Conversations with former players, scouts, front office analysts, and baseball historians reinforce these findings, with several recalling instances of overt bias occurring even within the last two decades.
Mitchell Nathanson, a law professor at Villanova and baseball historian, authored the 2024 book “Under Jackie’s Shadow,” which examines the racism faced by Black minor leaguers from 1950 to 1970. The book features testimonies from 13 Black players who overcame extraordinary challenges, only to see their careers cut short or impaired by bias.
“White audiences often prefer a narrative that ends on a high note. They’ll read about Willie Mays and Hank Aaron because those stories culminate in success at the Hall of Fame,” Nathanson noted. “This allows people to detach themselves from the painful parts of the story. They think, ‘Oh, it was awful, but look at their perseverance—it’s a great American tale!’ That’s misleading. While those players were exceptional, it doesn’t excuse the treatment they faced, nor does it consider the many players whose lives were devastated by systemic bias.”
Despite the growing emphasis on statistics in baseball, no public database currently exists that categorizes players by race or ethnicity, making the examination of racial biases challenging. By leveraging a meticulously compiled dataset of 11,000 major league players, I developed an AI model using facial recognition and names to estimate the perceived race of players. While the model cannot determine how individuals self-identify, it predicted racial classifications with about 94% accuracy—comparable to human judgment. This analysis encompassed around 40,000 players with headshots and names in major and minor league history from 1950 to 2019.
Typically, newly drafted players start at the low minor leagues and progress through six tiers of increasing skill development until they reach the majors. After adjusting for various performance metrics, age, and draft position, I found that teams were significantly less likely to promote Black and Latino players, even when their performance statistics were nearly identical to their white peers. Statistics also reveal that once Black and Latino players make it to the majors, they generally outperform their white counterparts, indicating that the bias against these players is unfounded.
One player who stood at the crossroads of this dynamic was Ron Allen, who reached the majors briefly in 1972, shortly after Robinson’s legacy began to reshape the league. Allen, a member of a baseball family—his brother Dick is often regarded as one of the greatest third basemen not in the Hall of Fame—recalls the realities of racial bias he faced during his career. “It didn’t matter if I hit .300 and a white player hit .270; he was going to get promoted ahead of me,” Allen said.
Allen’s experience underscores a troubling pattern: the impact of racial bias equated to an OPS (On-Base Plus Slugging) that was approximately 35 points lower than expected, reflecting disparities similar to those between Major League teams with disparate records. This trend persisted from 2000-2019, mirroring findings from 1950-2000, indicating that Black and Latino players continue to be promoted less frequently despite their performance.
Moreover, darker-skinned players were found to be more likely to be assigned to the outfield, whereas lighter-skinned Black and Latino players were often afforded opportunities at positions like catcher or shortstop, which are viewed as more critical roles. For instance, prior to 2000, only about 3% of Black players in the minors played as catchers, compared to nearly 10% of white players. Even when Black catchers were performing well, they were still 50% more likely to be shifted to different positions than their white counterparts.
As Black players have historically excelled in the outfield, the lack of representation in crucial positions like catcher, second base, and starting pitcher can hinder career opportunities and earnings for talented players. Wil Aaron, who began his career in 1971, experienced similar challenges. Although he excelled at second base, his team insisted he transition to the outfield. “Control positions like second base and catcher are crucial, akin to quarterbacking in football,” he explained.
The disparity in positions has also stunted the presence of Black and Latino catchers, who have drastically declined since 2000 to less than 2% in the minors, while the percentage of Black players in the outfield remains stagnant at 47%. Since 2000, the majors have seen only a handful of Black catchers with everyday roles.
While there has been a slight increase in Black pitchers since 2000, the number of pitchers has also grown due to strategic shifts in the game, leading to no change in the ratio of white to Black pitchers. Notably, Black and Latino pitchers are typically relegated to middle relief roles, which are less valued, resulting in fewer games started and saves despite having superior statistics like strikeout-to-walk ratios.
Although overt acts of racial discrimination have diminished since the Civil Rights era, the undercurrents of bias remain. Allen recalls the high frequency of hit-by-pitches targeting Black hitters during his career, reflecting the historical animosity from opposing teams. “Sometimes a catcher would warn you with a phrase like ‘hang loose’—that was a signal to brace yourself for getting plunked,” Allen recalled.
While racial bias around player positions and promotions persists, it reinforces the views of players like Hank Aaron, who poignantly said, “There’s a difference between what people think is behind us and what is actually ongoing.” As team management has diversified, with an increasing presence of Latin American and Asian players, the leadership remains predominantly white, which may perpetuate ingrained biases.
In recent years, as statistical analyses become more prevalent in evaluating player talent, expectations emerged that biases would diminish. However, Ben Baumer, a former Mets analyst and now a professor, argues that these algorithms can inadvertently reinforce biases, as they are often based on skewed historical data regarding player positions and progression.
“It’s important to recognize that while we aim to eliminate bias through machine learning algorithms, we may inadvertently amplify existing systemic inequalities,” Baumer explained.
Several front office professionals have acknowledged the persistence of coded language and stereotypes in evaluations based on race. Fernando Perez, a former major leaguer and current coach, points out that descriptors like “gamer” or “leader” are rarely attributed to non-white players. In a study of scout reports, stark disparities surfaced in how players of varying racial backgrounds were characterized, with negative remarks disproportionately directed at Black and Latino players.
Despite the acknowledgment of the issues, some teams actively strive for diversity and fairness in their assessments. The culture within different front offices can vary greatly, influencing attitudes toward bias and language, with some organizations benefiting from hiring overlooked talent.
The long-term effects of racial bias on players extend beyond their careers. Research indicates that exposure to racial discrimination can have lasting consequences on health and mental wellbeing. Allen, now 72, reflects on enduring nightmares stemming from his experiences in the game. “Can you believe this? Even now, I have dreams where I’m running in uniform to catch the train as it pulls away,” he shared.
“It’s difficult to move on when you’ve been wronged,” he concluded.
This analysis was supported by research from Brandon Smith, along with critical data from Mark Armour, Daniel Levitt, the Society for American Baseball Research (SABR), and Baseball Prospectus.