On October 23, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei delivered a speech at a conference in Tehran. However, reports from The New York Times on October 26 indicate that the 85-year-old leader is reportedly in poor health, raising questions about succession. His son, Mojtaba Khamenei, may be poised to take over as Iran faces a critical dilemma regarding retaliation against Israel. This situation has quietly sparked internal struggles over succession within Iranian politics.

The New York Times described a recent escalation in violence as Israel conducted three waves of airstrikes on October 26, targeting Iranian missile manufacturing facilities and air defense systems, resulting in the deaths of four Iranian soldiers. Iran now finds itself in a precarious situation: if it retaliates despite the current economic struggles and military vulnerabilities, tensions could escalate further. Conversely, if Iran opts for restraint, it risks being perceived as weak by regional allies and hardliners within its own borders.

Reuters further reported that on the same day, Tehran downplayed the implications of these strikes, with state television continuing regular programming and no immediate announcements of significant retaliatory actions. The Iranian Foreign Ministry asserted that the country “has the right and obligation” to defend itself, while also emphasizing its “responsibility for regional peace and security.”

Additionally, Iran is grappling with severe economic challenges, which has led to a cautious attitude towards engaging in a potentially protracted and costly conflict. The situation is compounded by stringent U.S. and European sanctions related to Iran’s nuclear program, pushing the nation closer to Russia and China.

Adding to the complexity, rumors about Khamenei’s serious health issues have sparked a silent power struggle over succession. The internal unrest has been exacerbated by the unexpected death of former President Ebrahim Raisi in a plane crash last May, leaving the 55-year-old Mojtaba Khamenei as a potential successor, which has caused further uncertainty.

The powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) holds significant influence in the succession debate and is believed to be more inclined toward confronting Israel. As the political climate continues to shift, all eyes are on how Iran will navigate these challenges amidst a backdrop of vulnerability and uncertainty.