Experts caution that implementing Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) may lead to unintended consequences rather than genuine improvements in government outcomes.

In anticipation of a potential victory for the Liberal National Party (LNP) in Queensland’s upcoming election, leaders are outlining plans to establish performance targets for cabinet ministers. Opposition leader David Crisafulli confirmed on Thursday that each minister would receive a public KPI within their ministerial charter letter. If ministers fail to meet these targets, Crisafulli stated they would be reassigned to the backbench, effectively removing them from the cabinet.

Crisafulli emphasized the importance of ministerial accountability, suggesting that setting clear tasks for ministers would result in a more competent government for Queenslanders. However, experts argue that there’s little evidence to support the idea that target-setting enhances performance in the public sector. Instead, they warn of the risk that it might encourage “perverse incentives” similar to a rat catcher intentionally breeding more rats to increase their fees, or a factory producing faulty vehicles simply to meet quotas.

Alastair Stark, an associate professor of public policy at the University of Queensland, expressed that while KPIs may drive output, they do not necessarily lead to better outcomes. “Public servants often find themselves jumping through hoops to meet targets instead of focusing on effective policy-making,” Stark noted. He indicated that the pressure to meet these targets could actually diminish the quality of governance.

For the premier, the stakes are high, with a specific target of 289,657 victims of crime set for 2023 as per the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Crisafulli has pledged to resign at the end of his first term if the number of crime victims doesn’t decrease, taking population growth into account. Stark remarked it would be “extraordinary” if such a target were indeed met.

Criminologist William Wood from Griffith University raised concerns that using victim numbers as a measurement could unintentionally dissuade victims from reporting crimes. “There’s a risk that agencies will try to manipulate the numbers rather than genuinely reduce crime,” Wood warned. He highlighted the need for attention to serious offenses that can be more challenging to tackle.

Setting specific targets also carries political risks. Adam Hannah, a political science lecturer at the University of Queensland, pointed out the potential pitfalls of Crisafulli’s commitment to resign if he fails to meet crime reduction goals. He noted that such promises could be easily leveraged against him in future campaigns.

Moreover, Hannah posited that while the LNP’s “risk minimization” strategy might help secure electoral victories, it could limit their ability to enact meaningful policies if they take power. The LNP, which aims to distinguish itself from the unpopular Newman government, may struggle to define a clear identity.

As the election approaches, any failure to meet targets could invite criticism from the opposition and give rise to internal party challenges, particularly if moderates within the LNP become concerned about figures like Amanda Stoker, who represent the Christian right. “Watch for her to be elevated to Premier-in-Waiting at the first sign of any trouble,” warned one LNP member, reflecting the heightened internal dynamics that could surface following the election.