Where does the money come from- BART’s prospects are bleak, with peak passenger flow declining and a large funding gap_1

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Where does the money come from- BART’s prospects are bleak, with peak passenger flow declining and a large funding gap_1

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Before the pandemic, BART trains were notoriously crowded, with an average of 400,000 riders commuting every weekday. Passengers would often stand shoulder to shoulder, making it a competitive scene for station parking. In stark contrast, current conditions reveal a troubling trend: even during peak hours, only a handful of passengers are on board.

According to a report from the San Francisco Chronicle referencing Business Insider, the situation reflects a broader trend where major companies like Apple, Google, and JPMorgan are requiring employees to work in the office just three days a week. Consequently, BART experiences heavy ridership on Tuesdays, Wednesdays, and Thursdays, while Fridays and Mondays see a significant drop as commuters opt to work from home.

BART spokesperson Alicia Trost shared that this shift isn’t sustainable for the agency’s operational budget. The financing model has a critical flaw since two-thirds of BART’s revenue traditionally comes from fares. Following the pandemic, even on the busiest weekdays—typically when most workers commute—passenger numbers have stabilized below 200,000. Officials estimate that once federal and state emergency funds run out, there will be an annual funding gap of between $300 million and $400 million. Trost emphasized that no amount of concerts at the Chase Center or Golden State Warriors games can make up for this decline in ridership. The departure of the Oakland Athletics has only added to the challenges.

BART and its consultants have started to envision a bleak future for the entire transit system: lengthy waits for trains, miles of unused tracks, and highways clogged with thousands of cars.

Trost notes that the transit agency is not anticipating a full return to pre-pandemic office attendance. In their efforts to secure support for a potential 2026 ballot measure that may include tax funding for public transportation, BART stands to be one of the most urgent beneficiaries. However, the willingness of Bay Area voters to support measures that maintain public transit remains uncertain.

Furthermore, if transportation officials fail to devise a revenue plan and submit it to the state legislature by January, BART could face severe consequences. A study released by BART in November 2022 indicated that if the agency were to lose $233 million annually, passengers could encounter “extremely deep” service reductions.

In light of the funding shortfall, BART plans to cut service on two of its five lines to operate only one train per hour and close at 9 PM. Weekday service will continue, but trains will not run on weekends, and nine stations are set for closure. Nick Josefowitz, vice chair of the Metropolitan Transportation Commission and a former BART board member, cautioned that if funding sources aren’t identified to keep BART operational, the outlook could be grim. He believes that without BART, or if it operates poorly, people may find themselves forced to quit their jobs, and businesses might consider relocating.